Mathematical modelling one conventional scouting nil
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 v Brentford 2
Mention the name Mark Warburton and the odds are that you are more likely to associate him with the sliced wholemeal residing in your bread bin than as an innovative football manager. Which is perhaps a shame, because up until the end of May 2015, Warburton was the highly successful manager of Brentford FC.
I wanted to know more so did a brief search of the Brentford FC Wikipedia page which lists past Brentford managers. It cites some interesting, yet unlikely names amongst them Tommy Lawton (1953) Jimmy Sirrel (1967 – 69), Frank McClintock (1984 – 87), David Webb (1993 – 97) Steve Coppell (2001 – 2002) and Terry Butcher (2007). All are better known than Warburton yet he alone amongst post war managers (during the 1930’s Brentford did play a number of seasons in the old First Division) has been the most successful, taking the Bees to within a whisker of the top division. Last season, Brentford finished 5th in the Championship, ultimately losing 5-1 to Middlesbrough in the Play Off semi final.
Now I am sure that Brentford is a fine club with a very loyal following but for most of its history it has pottered around in the lower divisions of the football league. Given that “pedigree” one would have thought that by finishing 5th in the Championship the Club had exceeded its expectations. You might have thought that but you are not Owner Matthew Benham, whose ambition and hubris were clearly on a different scale. Though flying high in the Championship, as early as February 2015, Warburton knew that come the end of the season he would not be managing Brentford. The reason; Benham’s insistence that he knew better than his manager, a player recruitment method based on mathematical modelling being, in his view, the route to success. (Benham, apparently, holds great store by statistics, believing that you can build a team by recruiting players, who rank highly by the most number of passes completed, or successful headers/tackles made). For some strange reason Warburton would have none of this and on the 31st May 2015 he said goodbye to Brentford before, some weeks later, saying hello to Glasgow Rangers.
Warburton’s replacement was Marinus Dijkhuizen, a Dutchman, whose grasp of English may have hindered his understanding of the Owner’s penchant for mathematical modelling. Anyway four months later, and with a record of six defeats in nine games, Dijkhuizen and Brentford parted company. By now there was a bright neon sign at the rear of the main stand at Griffin Park with the words “Don’t touch this job with a bargepole”. But however dire the circumstances there is always some brave Tommy ready to stick his head above the parapet and for Brentford that Tommy was ex Derby, Blackburn and Everton defensive midfielder Lee Carsley. Carsley’s record prior to this evening read; Played 2 Lost 2.
Against this dire background it was perhaps inevitable that Brentford would come to Molineux and win.
So now that they have done so, what conclusions can we draw from game three of Carsley’s tenure? On the basis of possession, how that possession was used, the number of chances created and the goals scored then Brentford won by a mile. In contrast Wolves were forever ponderous, always needing a touch when receiving the ball so that defenders were never stretched. Only when Jack Price came on in the second half and started passing with some pace and intent did matters change, but only marginally.
As for mathematical modelling – I’m a convert.
Wolves: Martinez 6, Iorfa 5 Sub Doherty, Batth 5, Hause 6, Golbourne 6, Henry 5 Sub van La Parra, McDonald 6, Coady 6, Ojo 6 Sub Price, Afobe 6, Le Fondre 5
Brentford: Button 6, Yennaris 6, Dean 7, Tarkowski 6, Bidwell 6, Woods 6 Sub Canos, Diagouraga 7, Judge 7, McCormack 6 Sub Kerschbaumer, Swift 7, Djuricin 6 Sub Hofmann
Attendance: 18, 167
Referee: Paul Tierney 8
©Mark Brennand